British Columbia voters face no shortage of policies when it comes to tackling the province鈥檚 housing woes in the run-up to Saturday鈥檚 election, with a clear choice for the next government鈥檚 approach.

David Eby鈥檚 New Democrats say the housing market on its own will not deliver the homes people need, while B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad says government is part of the problem and B.C. needs to 鈥渦nleash鈥� the potential of the private sector.

But Andy Yan, director of the City Program at Simon Fraser University, said the 鈥減unchline鈥� was that neither would have a hand in regulating interest rates, the 鈥済iant X-factor鈥� in housing affordability.

鈥淭he one policy that controls it all just happens to be a policy that the province, whoever wins, has absolutely no control over,鈥� said Yan, who made a name for himself scrutinizing B.C.鈥檚 chronic affordability problems.

Some metrics have shown those problems easing, with Eby pointing to what he said was a seven per cent drop in rent prices in Vancouver.

But Statistics Canada says 2021 census data shows that 25.5 per cent of B.C. households were paying at least 30 per cent of their income on shelter costs, the worst for any province or territory.

Yan said government had 鈥渁ccess to a few levers鈥� aimed at boosting housing affordability, and Eby has been pulling several.

Yet a host of other factors are at play, rates in particular, Yan said.

鈥淭his is what makes housing so frustrating, right? It takes time. It takes decades through which solutions and policies play out,鈥� Yan said.

Rustad, meanwhile, is running on a 鈥渄eregulation鈥� platform.

He has pledged to scrap key NDP housing initiatives, including the speculation and vacancy tax, restrictions on short-term rentals,and legislation aimed at boosting small-scale density in single-family neighbourhoods.

Green Leader Sonia Furstenau, meanwhile, says 鈥渃ommodification鈥� of housing by large investors is a major factor driving up costs, and her party would prioritize people most vulnerable in the housing market.

Yan said it was too soon to fully assess the impact of the NDP government鈥檚 housing measures, but there was a risk housing challenges could get worse if certain safeguards were removed, such as policies that preserve existing rental homes.

If interest rates were to drop, spurring a surge of redevelopment, Yan said the new homes with higher rents could wipe the older, cheaper units off the map.

鈥淭here is this element of change and redevelopment that needs to occur as a city grows, yet the loss of that stock is part of really, the ongoing challenges,鈥� Yan said.

Given the external forces buffeting the housing market, Yan said the question before voters this month was more about 鈥渘arrative鈥� than numbers.

鈥淲ho do you believe will deliver a better tomorrow?鈥�

Yan said the market has limits, and governments play an important role in providing safeguards for those most vulnerable.

The market 鈥渨on鈥檛 by itself deal with their housing needs,鈥� Yan said, especially given what he described as B.C.鈥檚 鈥�30-year deficit of non-market housing.鈥�

IS HOUSING THE 鈥楪OVERNMENT鈥橲 JOB鈥�?

Craig Jones, associate director of the Housing Research Collaborative at the University of British Columbia, echoed Yan, saying people are in 鈥渉ousing distress鈥� and in urgent need of help in the form of social or non-market housing.

鈥淭he amount of housing that it鈥檚 going to take through straight-up supply to arrive at affordability, it鈥檚 more than the system can actually produce,鈥� he said.

Among the three leaders, Yan said it was Furstenau who had focused on the role of the 鈥渇inancialization鈥� of housing, or large investors using housing for profit.

鈥淚t really squeezes renters,鈥� he said of the trend. 鈥淚t captures those units that would ordinarily become affordable and moves (them) into an investment product.鈥�

The Greens鈥� platform includes a pledge to advocate for federal legislation banning the sale of residential units toreal estate investment trusts, known as REITs.

The party has also proposed a two per cent tax on homes valued at $3 million or higher, while committing $1.5 billion to build 26,000 non-market units each year.

Eby鈥檚 NDP government has enacted a suite of policies aimed at speeding up the development and availability of middle-income housing and affordable rentals.

They include the Rental Protection Fund, which Jones described as a 鈥渃utting-edge鈥� policy. The $500-million fund enables non-profit organizations to purchase and manage existing rental buildings with the goal of preserving their affordability.

Another flagship NDP housing initiative, dubbed BC Builds, uses $2 billion in government financingto offer low-interest loans for the development of rental buildings on low-cost, underutilized land. Under the program, operators must offer at least 20 per cent of their units at 20 per cent below the market value.

Ravi Kahlon, the NDP candidate for Delta North who serves as Eby鈥檚 housing minister,said BC Builds was designed to navigate 鈥渉uge headwinds鈥� in housing development, including high interest rates, global inflation and the cost of land.

Boosting supply is one piece of the larger housing puzzle, Kahlon said in an interview before the start of the election campaign.

鈥淲e also need governments to invest and 鈥� come up with innovative programs to be able to get more affordability than the market can deliver,鈥� he said.

The NDP is also pledging to help more middle-class, first-time buyers into the housing market with a plan to finance 40 per cent of the price on certain projects, with the money repayable as a loan and carrying an interest rate of 1.5 per cent. The government鈥檚 contribution would have to be repaid upon resale, plus 40 per cent of any increase in value.

The Canadian Press reached out several times requesting a housing-focused interview with Rustad or another Conservative representative, but received no followup.

At a press conference officially launching the Conservatives鈥� campaign, Rustad said Eby 鈥渟eems to think that (housing) is government鈥檚 job.鈥�

A key element of the Conservatives鈥� housing plans is a provincial tax exemption dubbed the 鈥淩ustad Rebate.鈥� It would start in 2026 with residents able to deduct up to $1,500 per month for rent and mortgage costs, increasing to $3,000 in 2029.

Rustad also wants Ottawa to reintroduce a 1970s federal program that offered tax incentives to spur multi-unit residential building construction.

鈥淚t鈥檚 critical to bring that back and get the rental stock that we need built,鈥� Rustad said of the so-called MURB program during the recent televised leaders鈥� debate.

Rustad also wants to axe B.C.鈥檚 speculation and vacancy tax, which Eby says has added 20,000 units to the long-term rental market, and repeal rules restricting short-term rentals on platforms such as Airbnb and Vrbo to an operator鈥檚 principal residence or one secondary suite.

鈥�(First) of all it was foreigners, and then it was speculators, and then it was vacant properties, and then it was Airbnbs, instead of pointing at the real problem, which is government, and government is getting in the way,鈥� Rustad said during the televised leaders鈥� debate.

Rustad has also promised to speed up approvals for rezoning and development applications, and to step in if a city fails to meet the six-month target.

Eby鈥檚 approach to clearing zoning and regulatory hurdles includes legislation passed last fall that requires municipalities with more than 5,000 residents to allow small-scale, multi-unit housing on lots previously zoned for single family homes.

The New Democrats have also recently announced a series of free, standardized building designs and a plan to fast-track prefabricated homes in the province.

A statement from B.C.鈥檚 Housing Ministry said more than 90 per cent of 188 local governments had adopted the New Democrats鈥� small-scale, multi-unit housing legislation as of last month, while 21 had received extensions allowing more time.

Rustad has pledged to repeal that law too, describing Eby鈥檚 approach as 鈥渁uthoritarian.鈥�

The Greens are meanwhile pledging to spend $650 million in annual infrastructure funding for communities, increase subsidies for elderly renters, and bring in vacancy control measures to prevent landlords from drastically raising rents for new tenants.

Yan likened the Oct. 19 election to a 鈥渞eferendum about the course that David Eby has set鈥� for housing, with Rustad 鈥渙ffering a completely different direction.鈥�

Regardless of which party and leader emerges victorious, Yan said B.C.鈥檚 next government will be working against the clock, as well as cost pressures.

Yan said failing to deliver affordable homes for everyone, particularly people living on B.C. streets and young, working families, came at a cost to the whole province.

鈥淚t diminishes us as a society, but then also as an economy.鈥�