This year鈥檚 average global temperature is expected to rival 2024鈥檚 record-breaking heat, Canadian officials said Wednesday, underlining humanity鈥檚 narrowing window to hit an international target intended to help avert some of climate change鈥檚 most serious effects.

鈥淚f you look at the scientific literature, the window is closing very rapidly,鈥� said Bill Merryfield, a climate scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada.

It鈥檚 expected to be 1.45 C warmer this year than it was in the late 19th century 鈥� and it鈥檚 virtually certain to be hotter than any year before 2023, the federal scientists said.

The forecast comes just days after 2024 was declared the warmest calendar year on record. The World Meteorological Organization said it beat out the previous record, in 2023, and surpassed the benchmark of 1.5 C warmer than pre-industrial temperatures for the first time.

Countries have agreed to try to keep the increase in temperature below the 1.5 C mark and well below 2 C over the long term in a bid to prevent some serious effects of human-caused climate change, driven by planet-warming fossil-fuel emissions.

The threshold is measured in decades, not a single year. So, while the threshold is not broken because of last year鈥檚 record, Merryfield warned: 鈥淲e鈥檙e almost there.鈥�

鈥淚t would require reductions in emissions that are extremely rapid in order to avoid it, is what the current studies are showing.鈥�

Scientists say every bit of warming matters and mitigation efforts are important whether or not the threshold has been breached. Even with warming below that proposed limit, Canada has acutely felt the impact of climate change as sea levels rise, heat waves intensify and wildfires worsen in severity.

The record warmth of 2023 and 2024 was boosted by El Ni帽o, a climate pattern tied to shifting warm waters in the Pacific Ocean. This year鈥檚 forecast of rivalling warmth is expected to come despite the cooling influence of a weak La Ni帽a, El Ni帽o鈥檚 opposite.

While the forecast released Wednesday has a global scope, Merryfield indicated Canada鈥檚 average temperature was likely to be warmer than normal. Areas in the country鈥檚 northwest may be cooler than that because of the influence of La Ni帽a in the first half of the year, he said.

Canada is warming about twice as fast as the global average, and the Arctic, in particular, is warming even faster.