A on says Beijing is exceeding previous projections of how quickly it is building up its and is 鈥渁lmost certainly鈥� learning lessons from about what a might look like.
The report released Thursday also warns that China may be pursuing a new intercontinental missile system using conventional arms that, if fielded, would allow Beijing 鈥渢o threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii and Alaska.鈥�
The China report comes a month before an between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden on the sidelines of next month鈥檚 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco.
The annual report, required by Congress, is one way the Pentagon measures the growing military capabilities of China, which the U.S. government sees as its key threat in the region and America鈥檚 primary long-term security challenge.
But after Hamas鈥檚 Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, the U.S. has been forced again to focus on the Middle East, instead of its widely promoted pivot to the Pacific to counter China鈥檚 growth. The U.S. is while continuing to support and deliver munitions to Ukraine in its 20-month struggle to repel Russia鈥檚 invasion.
Still, the Pentagon鈥檚 national defense strategy is shaped around China remaining the greatest security challenge for the U.S., and that the threat from Beijing will determine how the U.S. military is equipped and shaped for the future.
The Pentagon report builds on the military鈥檚 warning last year that China was expanding its nuclear force much faster than U.S. officials had predicted, highlighting a broad and accelerating buildup of military muscle designed to enable Beijing to match or surpass U.S. global power by midcentury.
Last year鈥檚 report warned that Beijing was rapidly modernizing its nuclear force and was on track to nearly quadruple the number of warheads it has to 1,500 by 2035. The United States has 3,750 active nuclear warheads.
The 2023 report finds that Beijing is on pace to field more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, continuing a rapid modernization aimed at meeting Xi鈥檚 goal of having a 鈥渨orld class鈥� military by 2049.
After the previous report, China accused the U.S. of and Beijing said it was still committed to a 鈥渘o first use鈥� policy on nuclear weapons.
The Pentagon has seen no indication that China is moving away from that policy but assesses there may be some circumstances where China might judge that it does not apply, a senior U.S. defense said without providing details. The official briefed reporters Wednesday on condition of anonymity before the report鈥檚 release.
The U.S. does not adhere to a 鈥渘o first use鈥� policy and says nuclear weapons would be used only in 鈥渆xtreme circumstances.鈥�
The report said China is intensifying military, diplomatic and economic pressure not only on Taiwan but also toward all its regional neighbors to push back against what its sees as U.S. efforts to contain its rise. The pressure against Taipei includes ballistic missile overflights, into its international defense zone and a large-scale last August that encircled Taiwan.
Beijing has vowed to bring Taiwan under its control, by force if necessary. Xi has given his military until 2027 to develop the military capability to that the Communist Party claims as its own territory.
The U.S. has committed billions of dollars in to build up its defenses and help it rebuff any potential attack.
But China also has devoted billions to its military. According to its public budget numbers, China鈥檚 military spending for 2023 rose 7.2% to 1.58 trillion yuan, or $216 billion in U.S. dollars, outpacing its economic growth. U.S. officials say the actual figure may be much higher. Beijing says it implements a defensive military policy to protect the country鈥檚 interests.
The report also noted that China has increased its harassment of U.S. warplanes flying in international airspace in the region and recorded more than 180 instances where Chinese aircraft aggressively intercepted U.S. military flights.
The report focuses on China鈥檚 activities in 2022, but does look at the U.S. overflight of China鈥檚 and how a lack of communication between the two militaries increased the risk of escalation. It does not include the latest war between Israel and Hamas, but it found that Beijing is using what it learned from the Russia-Ukraine war. China, it said, is working toward industrial and economic self-reliance after seeing the impact of Western sanctions against Moscow.
Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine 鈥減resented a major, unexpected challenge鈥� for China, the report said, forcing it to measure its relationship and material support to Russia against the 鈥渞eputational or economic costs鈥� it could incur that would impede its overall goal of rising as a national power.
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