Dry January had a new meaning for Surrey, White Rock, and most of Metro Vancouver and the valley.
Weather-wise, it has been one of the driest months of January 鈥� so far 鈥� in many regions, for years, mainly due to a lengthy high-pressure system that has stayed in place for about three weeks, noted Environment and Climate Change Canada meteorologist Lisa Erven.
In fact, it's trending to be one of the region's five driest Januaries on record 鈥� depending on what the rest of the week brings.
Erven said most of the Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley, as well as much of the province, have so far experienced only about 20 to 30 per cent of typical January precipitation. Vancouver's weather data dates back to 1897, while Abbotsford's dates back to 1945.
"For Vancouver an Abbotsford, as of right now, we are sitting at the third-driest January on record with only about 20 per cent of typical January precipitation having fallen," Erven said Tuesday (Jan. 28).
"For White Rock, the total precipitation that's fallen so far is 30.3 millimetres 鈥� but typical January precipitation is 146.8 mm."
High pressure typically, deflects weather systems away from the province, she noted.
"Precipitation is hitting other areas of the West Coast, such as Alaska and down south of the border, but here in B.C. 鈥� especially on the coast, we really just haven't seen any weather systems make their way across that's what's causing our dry pattern."
Some of the dry January statistics may change, she added.
"We are expecting some precipitation on Thursday and Friday, the last two days of the month, so I do expect our totals to increase ... we're just going to have to wait and see exactly what falls and how that lines up with historical records."
While the weather change coming Thursday may mean flurries, or snow mixed with rain, at higher elevations throughout Metro Vancouver and the valley, Erven said she's not ruling out some snow for lower elevations too, depending on the timing of the changing weather systems and other factors.
"The key timeframe is really after that weather system passes, so sort of Friday night into Saturday morning, the cold front will pass and we'll be into a much colder air mass in behind Saturday through about mid-next week," she said.
"We have all the ingredients lining up for low-elevation snowfall 鈥� cold temperatures, moisture and an area of low pressure kind of hanging out over Vancuver Island 鈥� and when those three elements come together, it gives the potential for low elevation snow."
Right now, it's hard to say how much is coming and what communities will be hit hardest, due to the nature of the weather system, Erven explained.
"It's not your typical strong, low pressure system with well-defined fronts such as the one coming through on Thursday ... it's more of a lazy low that's just kind of hanging out, and you're going to have moisture sort of rotating around it, giving intermittent bursts of precipitation, and those bursts could come in the form of light flurries to locally heavy snowfall. The forecast bears watching, especially as we move into that Saturday-through-Wednesday timeframe."
Being prepared never hurts, she noted.
"Even with (snowfall) uncertainty, people can do things ahead of time 鈥� even just pulling out the winter boots, the shovel, the salt for salting sidewalks ... if you don't have winter tires, (there's time to get them in the) next couple of days," Erven said.
"Warm weather clothing and planning extra travel time if you are on the road ... all that will help keep you safe and prepared through this event."
