Political scientists see the Conservative Party of B.C. in the driver-seat when it comes to challenging the B.C. NDP, but it is not clear whether the provincial Tories will make in-roads in vote-rich urban B.C.
Dennis Pilon, Chair in the Department of Politics at York University, who previously taught at the University of Victoria, said the current split on the right side of the political spectrum is nothing new.
First the Socreds, then the B.C. Liberals, represented coalitions of more socially liberal urban voters and socially conservative rural voters, who found common ground in being pro-enterprise, fiscally conservative and anti-NDP, Pilon said.
Tensions have always defined these coalitions and the provincial Conservatives are currently benefiting from increased polarization and the strength of the federal Conservatives, he added. But this rise is not happening evenly across the province. Polls show the provincial Conservatives behind the NDP in Metro Vancouver and Greater Victoria.
鈥淭hey (Conservatives) are looking like they are in the pole position to see voters come to them as a party that can beat the NDP, but it is not clear that urban right-wingers will be prepared to sign on to the Conservatives,鈥� Pilon said.
Only the election will tell whether enough former B.C. Liberals in the urban parts of B.C. 鈥� many of them federal Liberals 鈥� are 鈥減repared to hold their nose and vote for a party with conservative in its name,鈥� Pilon said.
He made these comments following Monday鈥檚 defection of high-profile MLA Elenore Sturko to the Conservative Party of B.C. from B.C. United.
Its leader Kevin Falcon had personally recruited Sturko to run in Surrey-South, which she won in the fall of 2022. She has since then emerged as one of the most prolific MLAs on either side of the legislature.
UBC political scientist Stewart Prest considers her departure to the provincial Conservatives under John Rustad a 鈥渟ignificant coup鈥� for the party.
Sturko stands apart from her three caucus colleagues in several ways. She is not only a woman representing a fast-growing urban riding in Metro Vancouver, she is also a member of the 2SLGBTQ+ community.
Pilon said it not necessarily unusual for members of that community to be part of parties on the right side of political spectrum, pointing to former B.C. Liberal MLA Lorne Mayencourt.
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Prest said Sturko can 鈥渉elp bolster鈥� the argument of the provincial Conservatives as 鈥渕ore of a big-tent鈥� right-of-centre party.
鈥淚鈥檓 sure they (Conservatives) are really hoping that,鈥� Pilon added.
But Prest and Pilon each expressed reservations about how far Sturko鈥檚 new party and ultimately voters might buy her turn.
鈥淚n this case, to see someone who is a self-described 2SLGBTQ activist joining a conservative party seems bit of a stretch and I can鈥檛 help but feel people are going to see it as being pretty opportunistic,鈥� Pilon said.
Prest, meanwhile, raises questions about the Conservatives鈥� ideological consistency and whom the party actually represents. 鈥淏ecause up until last year, it really was a party that was a welcoming home鈥or the skeptics of modernity,鈥� he said in pointing to the party鈥檚 outside-the-mainstream positions on climate change, vaccines and social inclusion.
鈥�(Those) voices are still there and they have been amplified,鈥� Prest said. 鈥淭he scrutiny is only going to increase this morning (after Sturko鈥檚 defection).鈥�
Rustad has consistently said his party has never been about any ideology and Sturko said Monday that she accepted the apology of Conservative candidate Paul Ratchford, who called her a 鈥渨oke, lesbian, social justice warrior鈥� on social media.
鈥淵es, we could talk about Twitter all day, but what we need to do is unite with a party that is resonating with British Columbians,鈥� Sturko said Monday.
Others have been less forgiving. Figures inside and outside of B.C. United have highlighted Sturko鈥檚 previous criticisms of her new party. Some have also accused her of betraying the 2SLGBTQ community, a charge she has rejected.
Looking back, it is not unusual for a new centre-of-right party to emerge out of the ashes of another one, Pilon said. W.A.C Bennett, perhaps synoymous with the Socreds, was once a provincial Conservative, he said. B.C. Liberals, for their part, had emerged out of the Socreds.
Notably, B.C.鈥檚 first-past-the-post, winner-take-all-electoral system leaves no room for a divided right, something Pilon finds ironic.
鈥淭hey could adopt a proportional system and then every vote would count. But 鈥榥o, no, no,鈥� they wanted to keep this system where the votes don鈥檛 necessarily match up with the seats,鈥� he said. 鈥淭his is the dilemma that the two right-of-centre parties have now. They actually don鈥檛 want to unite.鈥�
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