Danielle Smith鈥檚 electoral victory in Alberta could spell the beginnings of a renewed confrontation between her province and Ottawa over climate policy 鈥� and create fodder for future attacks against the federal Tories, political observers say.
The United Conservative Party leader鈥檚 majority win over Rachel Notley鈥檚 NDP in Monday鈥檚 provincial vote put an unsurprising spring in the step of Conservative MPs from Alberta, long known as the country鈥檚 conservative heartland.
That assumption was tested during the campaign, which was voters鈥� first chance to weigh in on Smith鈥檚 government since she took the helm of the party and the legislature last fall.
It was an initial victory spurred by the support of people who were aggrieved by the COVID-19 mask and vaccine mandates under her predecessor, Jason Kenney.
鈥淭he focus is that we won,鈥� said Calgary MP Stephanie Kusie, who represents a federal riding Kenney held when he was a cabinet minister in Stephen Harper鈥檚 government.
鈥淟ess than a year ago, we had a new leader of the UCP that even I myself was unsure would go on to be successful. But she has been.鈥�
That sentiment has been a familiar refrain from conservatives both inside and outside of the province, with skeptics pointing out her comments about the pandemic and her government鈥檚 passage of a law that seeks to give the Alberta legislature the power to step around federal measures it opposes.
Smith used her victory speech to call out Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberals. She asked Albertans 鈥渢o stand shoulder to shoulder against soon-to-be announced Ottawa policies鈥� regardless of how they voted.
In addition to federal firearms policies, Smith has taken specific aim at the Liberals鈥� climate agenda, from carbon pricing to measures aimed at reducing emissions from the oil and gas industry. She argues such policies hurt Alberta鈥檚 economy.
Speaking to reporters in Ottawa, Trudeau congratulated Smith on her victory and said he planned to speak with her Tuesday afternoon.
Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson also struck an optimistic tone about the hope of finding common ground on priorities such as the development of hydrogen and mining of critical minerals.
鈥淐anada works best when Canadians work together,鈥� he told reporters Tuesday. 鈥淚鈥檓 going to approach the conversations with Premier Smith and her new cabinet with an open mind.鈥�
Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault agreed, saying the federal government will continue working with the province as it has over the past few years.
But Garry Keller, who served as a chief of staff to former Conservative interim leader Rona Ambrose, said that with Smith back in the premier鈥檚 office, she and the Liberals are on a collision course over climate.
He suggested that鈥檚 a fight that both Trudeau and Smith likely want to have. But he questioned whether Poilievre would want to step into that ring.
鈥淢aybe he does, but he probably wants to be talking about something other than climate, because 鈥� he鈥檒l have to put something in the window in terms of climate policy,鈥� said Keller.
鈥淔or Conservatives, climate (and) environment are always shield issues, not sword issues. And so, the less you鈥檙e talking about climate, environment, the more you鈥檙e talking about jobs, economy, Liberal scandals 鈥� the better for Pierre Poilievre and the federal Conservatives.鈥�
Poilievre, who endorsed Smith in the final stretch of the campaign 鈥� asking people to 鈥渧ote Conservative鈥濃�� said on Twitter after her win that Alberta voters have 鈥渞ejected the woke NDP-Liberal coalition,鈥� including its consumer carbon price.
Harper also threw his support behind Smith when many observers wondered whether moderate conservatives would turn up at the polls, given her controversial comments.
Carlene Variyan, an associate vice-president at Summa Strategies and a former senior staffer in several Liberal ministers鈥� offices, suggested that having Smith in the premier鈥檚 office is unhelpful to Poilievre鈥檚 goals.
The federal leader and his front-bench MPs have been looking to grow their support in and around Metro Vancouver, the Greater Toronto Area and southwestern Ontario 鈥� regions that could be key to a Conservative victory.
The biggest challenge for Smith in Monday鈥檚 election was winning support in urban Calgary and Edmonton ridings.
Anytime Smith says or does anything that appears extreme or offside with public opinion will provide an opening for conservative opponents, Variyan said.
鈥淚t provides the Liberals with a lot of easy material to put Poilievre in a bind.鈥�
Though some watchers looked to draw lessons from the win in Alberta, Conservative MP Greg McLean, who represents a riding in Calgary, emphasized that these are two different political parties.
And for Dane Lloyd, another Conservative MP from Alberta, the big takeaway was to not take anything for granted. It鈥檚 a mentality that Poilievre鈥檚 team adopted during his meteoric rise to leadership last year.
鈥淲e have to keep putting forward a vision that the people of Alberta and the people of Canada can get behind. And I think if we put forward that vision that the people want to see, it will be reflected in the voting results.鈥�
As the Liberals now face another four years of working with a premier who has been more foe than friend, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, who herself hails from Alberta, said the Liberal government respects Albertans鈥� choice.
鈥淭he people of Alberta have voted and we recognize that.鈥�
Stephanie Taylor and Mia Rabson, The Canadian Press
Like us on and follow us on .
