Mexico鈥檚 election of its first female president could mean a stronger relationship with Canada, as analysts watch how Claudia Sheinbaum will approach civil rights and the possible return of former U.S. president Donald Trump.

鈥淚 think we鈥檒l see a friendly relationship,鈥� said Carleton University professor Laura Macdonald, who specializes in Mexican politics.

鈥淎nd if Trump is re-elected, I think Mexico and Canada will really need each other more than ever, in order to confront the bully in the North American relationship.鈥�

Sheinbaum will replace Andr茅s Manuel Lop茅z Obrador in October. Both hail from the left-wing Morena party, which has focused on improving conditions for the poor while facing criticism over organized crime in the country.

A former climate scientist, Sheinbaum is the first Jewish leader of Mexico, and first came to prominence as mayor of Mexico City.

Trudeau spoke with Sheinbaum by phone Monday, and Ottawa鈥檚 readout says 鈥渢hey committed to working closely to strengthen North American competitiveness鈥� and bilateral ties.

Sheinbaum wrote on the platform X in Spanish that both agreed on 鈥渢he multiple common interests between Mexico and Canada and the great opportunities to strengthen our relationship.鈥�

The election comes three months after the Liberals reimposed a visa requirement for Mexican visitors over concerns that the 2016 lifting of the requirement led to a rise in ineligible refugee claims and human smuggling into the U.S.

In her victory speech, Sheinbaum promised to continue many of Lop茅z Obrador鈥檚 policies, but to 鈥渞espect business freedom and honestly promote and facilitate national and foreign private investment鈥� into Mexico.

鈥淪he鈥檚 probably less likely to engage in inflammatory rhetoric,鈥� Macdonald said.

Duncan Wood, a vice-president at the Wilson Centre think tank in Washington and its senior Mexico adviser, said Sheinbaum鈥檚 pledge for stable trade will be of particular interest to Canada, which is a leading source of investment in Mexican industries such as mining.

L贸pez Obrador restructured mining operations to keep more profits within Mexico, and also put restrictions on the energy sector.

Wood said Sheinbaum might repeal some investment restrictions while boosting environmental regulations, which he said would be an opportunity for Canadian industry, particularly when it comes to natural gas and renewables.

He said he expects Sheinbaum will avoid policies that leave Mexico accused of breaching trade agreements.

鈥淭he relationship with Canada has been difficult over the last six years for a number of reasons, in part because of the bluster of Lop茅z Obrador. But also, because there are real issues in the bilateral relationship to do with investment disputes.鈥�

Along with the U.S., the two countries will be part of the 2026 review of the trade deal that replaced NAFTA.

Ahead of the election later this year, American President Joe Biden and his likely election opponent Donald Trump have both been proposing policies that would clamp down on trade.

On Monday, Trudeau called the existing agreement 鈥渢he envy of the world, and the result of a strong, mutually beneficial relationship.鈥�

Wood noted the North American deal is a way for Mexico to sell itself as a stable country for foreign investment.

He also said Mexico will find common cause with Canada over concerns with the current situation for the automobile sector, one of multiple industries for which Sheinbaum might demand better policies from the U.S.

鈥淪he has a long-standing attitude that the United States has been pushing Mexico around for far too long,鈥� he said.

In addition to trade, Trudeau said in a statement that he wants to work with Sheinbaum on climate change, international security, gender equality and reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples.

Canada is still aiming to host the next North American Leaders鈥� Summit this year, despite the U.S. presidential election in November and Mexico revealing earlier this year that Ottawa had arranged for the summit to take place in February before plans fell through.

Trudeau鈥檚 office said both leaders 鈥渆xpressed their desire to meet in person soon鈥� during their Monday call.

Wood was in Mexico as an election observer and said the 鈥渉uge victory鈥� for Sheinbaum鈥檚 party surprised people, who expected her to win but not to have a possible supermajority in the Mexican congress.

The result could give her party wide berth to change Mexico鈥檚 constitution, following L贸pez Obrador taking steps to take powers away from independent regulators and decrying American funding for civil-society groups that are critical of the government.

Freedom House says Mexico鈥檚 defence department has used spyware to infiltrate the mobile phones of numerous activists, while Human Rights Watch says the government鈥檚 proposed legal reform threatens judicial independence.

鈥淏ehind the scenes, there are some concerns about what he might have been doing to restrict democratic institutions,鈥� Macdonald said of Lop茅z Obrador. 鈥淭hat will be a theme under the new president鈥�

Still, Macdonald said Canada and Mexico are each other鈥檚 best hopes if the U.S. decides 鈥渋t won鈥檛 be easy sailing鈥� in continental trade.

鈥淲e have common interests, and we just have to keep working on developing the relationship.鈥�