Anxious Alberta ranchers praying for rain got their wish this week, but it may not be enough to stop the ongoing decline in Canadian cattle production.

The moisture that fell on parts of drought-parched Alberta came as a welcome reprieve to the hundreds of cattle farmers who have seen their pastures wither and their water supplies dry up this June.

But a few inches of rain won鈥檛 be enough to cut it in much of Canadian cattle country, which is still trying to dig its way out of a significant moisture deficit.

鈥淚 think this is the driest I鈥檝e ever seen it,鈥� said Bob Lowe, a rancher and feedlot operator from the Nanton area of southern Alberta.

鈥淭he grass started this spring, and came up a little bit, and then it just turned around and died. It鈥檚 supposed to be green this time of year, but it鈥檚 just grey-brown.鈥�

According to Agriculture Canada鈥檚 Drought Monitor, 82 per cent of the agricultural regions of the three prairie provinces were either 鈥渁bnormally dry鈥� or in 鈥渕oderate to extreme drought鈥� as of the end of May.

Some ranchers have been spending hours every day this spring hauling water by truck or trailer to their cattle after their watering holes completely dried up, said Ryder Lee, general manager of the Canadian Cattle Association.

鈥淥r they鈥檙e filling dugouts from other places with pipelines and pumps,鈥� Lee said.

鈥淭here鈥檚 lots of creativity and ingenuity in the industry, but all of that takes a toll on people.鈥�

It also takes a toll on an industry that has already been steadily shrinking for years. Last year, the size of the Canadian cattle herd fell to 12.3 million animals 鈥� the lowest level recorded since July 1, 1988.

The 2.8 per cent year-over-year reduction was in large part due to the after-effects of an extremely harsh drought on the prairies in 2021. As crops withered and feed prices skyrocketed, many ranchers sold their cattle for slaughter rather than holding onto them for breeding.

That could happen again this year, and at an even larger scale, said Rob Somerville, who has a cattle farm in east-central Alberta, near the town of Innisfail.

鈥淭here is a train of thought that people who may have hung on last time, this time, will sell,鈥� Somerville said.

He added that some producers might have hesitated to sell in 2021 because cattle prices at the time were low. But as cattle numbers in North America have continued to shrink, prices have increased, hitting all-time records this spring.

鈥淛ust about everybody I鈥檝e spoken to has already prepared a list of the cows they鈥檙e going to sell. These people won鈥檛 be leaving the industry, but they鈥檙e certainly planning a herd reduction.鈥�

South of the border, U.S. cattle inventory is also down four per cent year-over-year due to increased heifer slaughter. According to a report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, roughly 69 per cent of the U.S. cattle herd as of December 2022 was located in drought-stricken areas, leading to the largest contraction of the North American cattle herd in a decade.

Other catastrophes in the last two decades 鈥� including the BSE (mad cow) crisis and the 2009 financial crisis 鈥� also led ranchers to downsize their herds or exit the industry entirely.

As a result, according to Statistics Canada, there are 25 per cent fewer beef cows in Canada now than there were in 2005.

鈥淎fter a while it鈥檚 not just an individual farm-by-farm thing, it鈥檚 an industry issue. And that has far wider implications,鈥� Somerville said, adding that fewer cows could cause ripple effects all the way down the value chain 鈥� potentially leading to lost jobs at feedlots, at meat-packing plants and more.

鈥淭his is a big contributor to the economy that we鈥檙e talking about.鈥�

Winnipeg-based cattle markets analyst Jerry Klassen said he believes one or two good rains could save the industry from wide-spread liquidation of herds this year.

鈥淵ou can still get one good hay crop in Alberta if you get timely rains from now moving forward,鈥� Klassen said.

鈥淎nd you鈥檝e got these high prices. If the farmer can maintain or increase his herd, he鈥檚 going to reap the rewards over the next two or three years.鈥�

But Somerville said multiple years of dry conditions have left some ranchers feeling that they鈥檙e 鈥渞unning out of tricks they can pull out of the hat.鈥�

鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of producers who have been hanging on as long as they can and they may decide now is the time to get out of the industry,鈥� he said.

鈥淚t鈥檚 just been too many struggles, for too long.鈥�

Amanda Stephenson, The Canadian Press

READ MORE:

Like us on and follow us on .