The country鈥檚 top soldier and outside experts say that finding almost $1 billion in savings in the Department of National Defence budget will affect the Armed Forces鈥� capabilities, although the defence minister insisted Friday the budget is not being cut.

Deputy minister Bill Matthews told MPs on the House of Commons defence committee that the department is identifying 鈥減roposals for spending reductions鈥� that total more than $900 million over four years, while trying to minimize the impact on military readiness.

鈥淲e have to prioritize those decisions so that there is the least amount of impact possible, acknowledging that there will be impact,鈥� Matthews said Thursday.

The chief of the defence staff, Gen. Wayne Eyre, said top military leaders were meeting to discuss what that will mean.

鈥淚 had a very difficult session this afternoon with the commanders of the various services as we attempt to explain this to our people,鈥� Eyre said.

鈥淭here鈥檚 no way that you can take almost a billion dollars out of the defence budget and not have an impact.鈥�

Yet in a statement on Friday, Defence Minister Bill Blair鈥檚 spokesman Daniel Minden said: 鈥淎ny claim that Canada is 鈥榗utting鈥� defence spending is not accurate, because overall defence spending has increased and will continue to increase.鈥�

The most recent federal budget projects that the department鈥檚 budget will be $39.7 billion in 2026-27, up from $26.5 billion in the current fiscal year. Most of the budget for the next several years is tied up in long-term spending commitments 鈥� for example, the purchase of 88 F-35 fighter jets.

In the same budget, the government announced plans to find more than $15 billion in savings over five years by cutting consulting, professional services and travel by 15 per cent and departmental spending by three per cent.

Anita Anand, who was shuffled from defence to become president of the Treasury Board over the summer, told her colleagues they need to start making those decisions by October.

Anand鈥檚 new role was announced just a few weeks after she and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attended the NATO summit in Lithuania, where allies agreed to make two per cent of GDP the new minimum spend on defence, and pledged that 20 per cent of that money would be spent on equipment.

Blair told the committee Thursday that Canada may need to push off some major procurement projects, such as the shipbuilding strategy, and make do with older equipment for now.

The defence budget is about 1.3 per cent of Canada鈥檚 GDP. Despite its commitments, the Liberal government has never laid out a plan to get to two per cent.

David Perry, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, said Friday there is a disconnect to see Anand 鈥渂eing the person to agree to spend more, to then be wielding the budget knife that鈥檒l make that mathematically impossible.鈥�

Perry said a three per cent cut to the total budget is easier to achieve than a 15 per cent cut to the budget allocated for consulting, and he argued that defence consulting contracts are unique.

鈥淚t鈥檚 stuff that provides for our fleet maintenance. It鈥檚 contracts that provide 鈥� things like engineering studies, architectural studies and support of buildings, designing warships, that kind of thing,鈥� he said.

Blair鈥檚 office said it will find savings on things like consulting and travel.

But Philippe Lagass茅, a professor at Carleton University who specializes in defence policy and procurement, said that鈥檚 unlikely to be enough.

鈥淭his is on brand,鈥� he said.

鈥淒efence spending goes up when the economy is doing well or governments are willing to accept fairly significant budget deficits. As soon as governments tire of budget deficits or wish to cut spending, the military is necessarily going to be in their crosshairs.鈥�

Blair acknowledged there is an urgent need for significant new investments in defence Thursday, but noted the government has to balance that with other priorities, including housing and affordability measures.

The Armed Forces also has other priorities.

It鈥檚 trying to tackle a personnel crisis that has been its top priority since last October, when Eyre ordered a halt to all non-essential activities to focus on boosting recruitment and retention.

On Thursday, he said just shy of 16,000 positions are unfilled, and another 10,000 soldiers 鈥� around one in 10 鈥� are not yet trained to take part in operations.

That vacancy rate has not budged since early this spring despite efforts to revamp basic training and a new program that allows people to sign on for one year in the navy.

Eyre said there is positive news in retention: The attrition rate is back within historic norms at 7.1 per cent, down from 9.2 per cent during the peak of the pandemic.

Conservative members of the committee expressed frustration at the idea of budget reductions.

鈥淚鈥檓 hearing from reservists that they aren鈥檛 getting their skills in their trades trained up fast enough, they鈥檙e years behind, not months behind,鈥� said James Bezan, the party鈥檚 defence critic.

鈥淲hat鈥檚 going to give here?鈥�

On Friday, Conservative MP John Brassard called it a 鈥渄isgrace鈥� and accused the government of lying to NATO allies in a statement on X, formerly Twitter.

The U.S. ambassador to Canada, David Cohen, said in a written statement that he won鈥檛 comment on hypothetical possibilities, but noted the two countries have committed to a defence partnership.

鈥淭he United States and Canada both understand that collective security is not free 鈥� we need 21st century defence and security to meet 21st century challenges,鈥� Cohen said.

A spokesperson for the British High Commission similarly declined to comment on budget decisions, but said 鈥渢he U.K. remains wholly supportive of the NATO pledge, reaffirmed by all alliance members at the Vilnius summit in June.鈥�

Lagass茅 said there鈥檚 already a perception among Canada鈥檚 allies that domestic politics trump international agreements and targets.

鈥淚 think it鈥檚 just going to reinforce existing perceptions that we鈥檙e just not serious about this and that we鈥檙e never going to step up,鈥� he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 29, 2023.

Sarah Ritchie, The Canadian Press