On a bank of Villa Victoria reservoir, where in other years boats might have used them to anchor, 10 concrete blocks lie exposed to the sun. They should be under water, but that was before severe drought dropped the reservoir to the lowest level that Gabriel Bejarano has seen since he moved back to his grandfather鈥檚 farm a decade ago.

鈥淭he water is supposed to come up to here,鈥� Bejarano, a veterinarian, said as he pointed toward a fence a hundred yards back from the reservoir鈥檚 edge on a recent morning.

The dipping level on the north shore of this lake near Toluca is a major problem for Mexico City, about 77 miles (125 kilometers) to the west. Villa Victoria 鈥� about one-third its usual level this time of year 鈥� and two other drought-depleted reservoirs make up most of the Cutzamala system, which serves more than 20 million people and is at a historical low for this time of year.

Even more worrisome: Mexico鈥檚 rainy season is just about over, and its departure will end any realistic hope of refilling the reservoirs before next year. The Mexican National Water Commission on Tuesday announced water restrictions equivalent to about 8% of the Cutzamala system鈥檚 flow, and millions of users in Mexico City and Toluca fear even greater restrictions over the winter.

Mexico City gets more than a quarter of its water from those reservoirs. Most of the rest is drawn from the Valley of Mexico鈥檚 increasingly depleted aquifer. Neighborhoods without as many wells 鈥� thus more reliant on the reservoirs 鈥� will feel the shortages first and most acutely.

The drought hasn鈥檛 been limited to the valley. Seventy-five percent of Mexico is currently in drought, according to the most recent data from the country鈥檚 National Meteorological Service, including 鈥渆xtreme鈥� drought across much of Central and North Mexico and some 鈥渆xceptional鈥� drought in the states of Durango and San Luis Potos铆. The government has distributed emergency water by truck in Durango throughout the summer, plus almost 40 million liters of water across eight other drought-stricken states.

Meanwhile, navigation and tourism on Lake P谩tzcuaro, known for iconic Day of the Dead celebrations in the western state of Michoac谩n, risk drying up with increasingly low water levels.

In Mexico City, it鈥檚 not unusual in recent years to see some water shortages just before the rainy season. In spring 2021, Villa Victoria was at one-third its normal capacity in what described as the city鈥檚 . But summer rains largely alleviated that drought, part of a weather pattern where warmer months typically usher in low-pressure weather systems that bring rain.

But that pattern was disrupted this year as El Ni帽o conditions created a wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico, Tereza Cavazos, an oceanography professor with the Ensenada Center for Scientific Research in Baja California, told The Associated Press.

It is not possible to attribute the drier summer to climate change alone, said David K. Adams, an atmospheric scientist with Mexico鈥檚 National Autonomous University, but it is 鈥渆ntirely consistent鈥� with global patterns from a .

鈥淭he idea is that drying climates tend to get drier and wet climates get wetter,鈥� said Adams.

Studies have shown .

The window for rain to replenish the system is quickly closing, according to Manuel Perl贸 Cohen, an urban planner and urbanism professor at the National Autonomous University鈥檚 Institute of Social Research. The best of the rainy season is already over; Mexico鈥檚 November and December rainfall is typically less than a tenth of what falls in summer months.

鈥淚鈥檓 sure we鈥檙e going to have a shortage problem and I鈥檓 sure the city will get less water and many inhabitants will suffer from that,鈥� Perl贸 said.

Fixing Mexico City鈥檚 notoriously leaky water system would help in times of drought. Academics at the National Autonomous University in 2018 calculated the system leaks 5,680 gallons (21,500 liters) per second. Sheinbaum, now a leading presidential candidate, tried to address the leakage while mayor but progress has been slow.

Perl贸 said fixing what he called the world鈥檚 鈥渓argest and most complicated, sophisticated infrastructure for access to water鈥� will be expensive, and there hasn鈥檛 been funding to do so.

鈥淲e shouldn鈥檛 be facing these kinds of situations,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e have enough water and we鈥檙e not using it efficiently.鈥�

Some advocates have suggested restoring Mexico City鈥檚 last remaining natural watercourse, the Magdalena River, but that would have to contend with pollution along the river鈥檚 entire length from its source west of the capital.

Much of the city relies on wells that tap into the valley鈥檚 groundwater. In response to the cuts on Tuesday, the government said it would drill new wells. But it may be hard to find enough water that way, especially as less water is returned to the valley鈥檚 overexploited aquifer.

鈥淢exico City is a monster; it鈥檚 a beast,鈥� said Adams. 鈥淎ll the asphalt, all the plastic in the gutters means that water disappears. It never enters the system鈥� by reaching the aquifer, he said.

The government is also working on a new water treatment plant at the Mad铆n reservoir, just northwest of Mexico City, which will add 132 gallons (500 liters) per second to the Cutzamala system.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 not a medium- and long-term solution,鈥� said Perl贸. 鈥淲e cannot be living on the edge all the time.鈥�

Another solution could be local-level water capture.

Working with Mexico鈥檚 Environment Department, Isla Urbana, a group working to improve water access in the city, has installed 10,000 rain collection systems house-by-house across the traditionally underserved southern boroughs of Tlalpan and Xochimilco. The systems gather, filter and treat rain falling on a building before storing it in a personal tank.

Emilio Becerril, Isla Urbana project manager, said such rainwater harvesting could 鈥減ermanently change the water access situation鈥� in the face of climate change, aging infrastructure and government inertia.

But a lasting solution needs institutional changes, he said.

鈥淓ven if you build thousands of systems, there are thousands of houses being built 鈥� more and more extractive,鈥� said Becerril.

Perl贸鈥檚 department at the university built a four-hectare rain capture system into a playground in the southeast borough of Iztapalapa in 2018. Last month Mayor Mart铆 Batres proposed to build thousands of rainwater harvesting systems into schools across the capital, a program Perl贸 hopes doesn鈥檛 succumb to the same money issues as previous government water plans.

Becerril also wants to see wastewater reuse, and new infrastructure to separate stormwater from waste: an idea even he admits straddles the line between 鈥渉opeful鈥� and 鈥渄elusional.鈥�

鈥淩ain patterns are changing. It鈥檚 the first year I personally have seen that clearly,鈥� said Becerril. 鈥淲e鈥檝e gotten to the urgency point.鈥�

Bejarano, the veterinarian living on the edge of the Villa Victoria reservoir, said he worries less about water for his grandfather鈥檚 farm and more about younger generations like his son, who wore a Sonic the Hedgehog hoodie as his father carried him around the property in one arm.

鈥淲e all have children,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e鈥檙e all affected, especially when it comes to water.鈥�

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Daniel Shailer, The Associated Press