Right now, there鈥檚 no reason to think that a catastrophic Fraser River flood will hit the Lower Mainland.

Back in 1948, one of the most devastating floods in B.C.鈥檚 history struck when warm spring weather rapidly melted snow on the Interior mountains. The Fraser rose, the dikes were breached, and the equivalent of more than $215 million damage was done, in modern values.

Now, of course, there鈥檚 even more buildings, roads, and critical infrastructure in the path of a potential flood.

There have been some improvements in our flood protection infrastructure over the last decade. A number of high-water scares have led to governments investing in dike upgrades.

But last November鈥檚 catastrophic floods, caused by atmospheric rivers, show that in an era of climate change, we can鈥檛 rely on past estimates of damage to guess what the future will hold.

This year, we鈥檝e had cool temperatures and plenty of rain. Despite that, snow packs in the key areas that feed the Fraser River are only a little above normal.

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Barring a sudden Pineapple Express weather system or a sharp heat wave, the snow that鈥檚 on the mountains from here to the headwaters of the Fraser should melt at a manageable rate of speed.

But we know that, if it isn鈥檛 this year, it鈥檒l be next year, or the year after that, or 10 years from now. The question is not, 鈥淲ill there be a flood?鈥� The answer to that question is always 鈥淵es, someday.鈥� The real question we have to ask, this spring and every spring to come is 鈥淲hat can we do to be better prepared?鈥�

Climate change means higher temperatures, but also more unpredictable weather patterns. If our world continues to be unpredictable, we have to be ready for wild swings, and for another re-run of flood years like 1948.

鈥� M.C.