Just a few weeks ago, I wrote about the biggest problem facing Pierre Poilievre, the likely next leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.

In brief, his problem is bringing in some new non-voters, many of whom are conspiracy theorists and others who are deeply suspicious of or actively hostile to government, while somehow also appealing to ordinary, centrist-ish voters, and somehow keeping that coalition together for two years or so. It鈥檚 a doozy.

Poilievre鈥檚 problems are of his own making.

But then, so are the problems of his primary opponent, Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Trudeau has so many problems it鈥檚 easier to list them as bullet points:

鈥� Wearing blackface at least twice in his past

鈥� SNC-Lavalin affair, plus Jody Wilson-Raybould鈥檚 principled resignation

鈥� WE Charity scandal

鈥� Series of broken promises, including on proportional representation

鈥� Aga Khan ethics affair

That鈥檚 just the highlights, but it鈥檚 quite a lot, and across a broad swathe of policy and personal behaviour. It kind of makes Jean Chretien, who choked a protester, joked about other protesters being pepper sprayed, and was in office during the massive corruption of the sponsorship scandal, seem lacking in ambition.

In many countries, even in Canada in other eras, this string of disappointments and scandals would prompt cabinet ministers to start plotting a palace coup.

But not for Trudeau, at least not so far. (We do have a few years to wait until the next election, there鈥檚 time.)

Trudeau has two things going for him:

1) He can use the effective Liberal trick of frightening people with the Conservatives and

2) Conservative Party flailing

Canada鈥檚 center-left is not that cohesive. You鈥檝e got left-of-centre Liberals, you鈥檝e got NDPers, there鈥檚 Greens, and there鈥檚 plenty of people whose votes wander.

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What helps prop up the Liberals, time after time, is that if it looks like the Tories are up in the polls, whoever the Liberal leader is can warn that if they split the vote, that鈥檚 all she wrote. Conservative majority again.

Polling in the past has shown that a significant fraction of the Liberal vote comes from people who would rather have voted for someone else, but voted for the party that had the best chance of defeating the Conservatives.

(This is also NDP leader Jagmeet Singh鈥檚 problem in a nutshell.)

It鈥檚 not exactly a subtle strategy, but it鈥檚 worked plenty of times. Do you think the Liberals don鈥檛 have a hit squad putting together a greatest hits list of Poilievre鈥檚 most inflammatory quotes right now?

And that鈥檚 part two of the Liberal advantage. The Conservatives since Harper haven鈥檛 had the faintest idea whether to tack towards the center, or to the right.

So despite his many, many problems, Trudeau has a good chance of winning the next election, essentially by default.