Donald Trump does not have a coherent plan for tariffs. Anyone pretending he does is already stumbling into a major error.
Here's a list of all the justifications Trump has claimed (so far) for his proposed 25 per cent tariffs on Canada:
鈥� Fentanyl and illegal immigrants crossing the border
鈥� The U.S. is "subsidizing" Canada, i.e. they have a trade deficit because we sell them a lot of oil and gas
鈥� They don't need anything from us 鈥� cars, lumber, steel, anything
鈥� We don't allow U.S. banks to operate here
鈥� We don't allow U.S. farm products into Canada
鈥� Canada should be the 51st U.S. state
The fact that all of those reasons are based on lies, gross mischaracterizations, or are outright threats is immaterial, because Trump doesn't really care about solving any problem or achieving a long-term trade deal, security agreement, or solid goal of any kind.
His press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, was the one who concisely summed up Trumpian policy after Canada promised boosted border enforcement and the creation of a fentanyl czar: "Canada is bending the knee, just like Mexico."
Trump is not playing five-dimensional chess. He's not enacting some cunning multi-part plan to revitalize American manufacturing. He is a malignant narcissist who can't feel big unless he's knocking someone else down. That's all he is. It's all he's ever been.
Which means that trying to figure out what he "wants" in a negotiation is a pointless exercise. He wants to win, and to be seen winning. He wants everyone else to bend the knee.
This has to inform Canada's strategy over the next four years in any future clashes with Trump.
There are only two positions a bully recognizes for others 鈥� a perpetual, grovelling sycophant, or someone who's too dangerous to pick on.
You can temporarily buy him off with flattery and minor concessions. Canada got off very lightly this time, but that just bought us a 30-day reprieve.
Several premiers, regardless of party, do recognize the nature of the threat. It's weird to have Doug Ford and David Eby singing from the same songbook, but both understand that the best way to get Trump to back off is to threaten to cause him some pretty serious (economic) pain. You have to destroy his ability to claim he's won.
Remember, the only thing he really cares about is being able to claim victory. If he faces the possibility of a humiliating defeat, he won't start the fight in the first place. He'll have plenty of other people to pick on. He can always go back to bashing Greenland or Panama or trying to ethnically cleanse Gaza so he can build a garish seaside resort on the bones of the dead.
The problem with modern diplomacy is that almost all of it is conducted by rational adults who are capable of compromise, and who are invested in the idea that their opponents are also rational adults capable of compromise.
We aren't dealing with that now. For at least the next four years, we're sitting next to the class bully, and he's looking for targets.
