We take for granted that there will be more people in B.C. next year than there were this year. But that might not be the case, for the first time in well over a century.
According to the latest population estimates released by B.C. Stats, the population of this province could actually dip slightly around 2025-2026. It would likely amount to a fraction of a per cent of the population 鈥� but that's a huge reversal.
Between 2022 and 2023, the rate of population growth in B.C. hit three per cent, a high that we last touched in the early 1970s. We're going from a record peak to an all-time low.
The roller coaster is a result of federal policy. Ottawa increased immigration targets some years back, but a major proportion of the high population growth has been big, big increases in the number of temporary foreign students and, especially in the wake of the pandemic, temporary foreign workers. With the number of temporary residents coming in now reduced and capped, and immigration targets reduced as well, there's expected to be a net outflow soon as students and workers finish up their time here and return home.
We're already seeing the first wave of impacts this slower population growth is having. Local colleges and universities are scrambling to revamp now that they're not getting as many lucrative overseas students. Average rents in Metro Vancouver actually dropped last year, which is likely at least partly a response to fewer students and workers arriving and looking for housing.
So what happens next? B.C. Stats expects population growth to stabilize at under one per cent a year again in the wake of the sudden drop. That's around the bottom end of the range we've seen over the last 20 years.
For provincial and local governments, this will be a welcome breather. Many of our major problems, including the housing crisis, ER closures and insufficient family doctors, and portables sprouting at schools were in part due to rapid population growth. Slowing that down gives us a chance to catch up on hiring and training doctors, nurses, and teachers, on building hospitals and schools, and on adding to our housing supply.
The question is what happens if we get hit with a big economic crunch as well.
In the past, population growth in B.C. has been somewhat correlated with the economy. Good times have seen higher growth, as immigrants and residents of other provinces flocked to B.C. Then during major downturns, immigration slowed. Previous low points included the brutal recession of the early 1980s and the late-1990s one-two punch of the Asian economic crisis and the Dotcom crash.
Things are not looking good economically, right now.
After years of steady population growth, we could see a years-long slowdown. And that brings its own problems, especially for workers and businesses. The housing market, already shaky, could take a big hit. Trades employment could suffer, but in other fields, competition for scarce workers might drive up wages, and even kick-start inflation.
Trying to find a Goldilocks level of growth remains one of the most difficult tasks in politics.
