Pierre Poilievre wants to be Canada鈥檚 next prime minister, and he has a fairly decent shot at achieving that goal.

Fortunately, we are not facing a federal election this year (fingers crossed), but we will likely see one in 2024. So the party leaders are girding their loins, particularly Poilievre, who has been popping up wherever there might be a microphone and a crowd of potential voters.

I have a theory of how Poilievre could win the coming election. All he needs to do is say three magic words, over and over and over again:

鈥� Housing!

鈥� Housing!

鈥� Housing!

That鈥檚 it. All he has to do is remind Canadians of their biggest issue, and he could steamroll right over Justin Trudeau.

The Liberals, and Trudeau in particular, have tried to claim a monopoly on a specific kind of Canadian identity 鈥� Canada as a compassionate middle power, a nation of immigrants and free health care, a place that sends out soldiers in UN blue helmets to do peacekeeping missions.

How much does your conception of Canada matter when no one under 40 can buy a home unless they鈥檙e a successful doctor, lawyer, or drug dealer?

Along with inflation and health care (when he gets bored of saying 鈥淗ousing!鈥� Poilievre could try shouting about closed ERs and the price of groceries) housing has become a singular generational crisis.

The traditional Tory voter base has always skewed a little older, while the Grits and the NDP tend to get more young voters.

But right now, no one is angrier in Canada than folks in their 20s and 30s, with good jobs, who are needing a roommate to afford a 700-square-foot rental condo.

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The next election is going to go to whomever can convince Canadians that they can fix housing, while avoiding breaking anything else.

I think that鈥檚 where Poilievre鈥檚 advantage might break down.

The traditional Liberal attack on Conservatives is to paint them as far-right wingnuts.

Poilievre keeps throwing culture-war red meat to his core supporters. And every time he does, the Liberals (and NDP) point to it eagerly. See! He鈥檚 going to scrap the carbon tax! He hates trees!

I鈥檓 not sure that PPC leader Maxime Bernier could win an election even if he was the only candidate, but the chance of right-wing vote-splitting appears to be keeping Tory strategists up at night. So they are trying to shore up their right flank, instead of sprawling out and occupying the middle ground 鈥� which is traditionally where elections are won and lost.

We have a strange situation in federal politics. The Liberals appear enervated and out of steam. The Conservatives are in the thrall of U.S. culture-war memes. The NDP remain hostage to their coalition with the Liberals.

Watch for the Bloc and Greens to start shouting about housing.