The older I get, the more I believe that the future is unknowable.

Look at the past quarter century, for example. Who in 1999 would have confidently predicted events as diverse as the rise of social media, 9/11, the subprime mortgage crisis, COVID-19, China's population starting to shrink, and Pluto being dethroned as a planet?

Two hotly debated theories of history are the Great Man Theory, which says that decisions by major leaders drive the changes in our world, and materialist or social history, which says that vast social and economic forces create inevitable changes, with individual people as mere pawns.

Personally, I think they're both wrong. Neither theory leaves enough room for chance and shocking surprises, which play a huge role. This is the idea summed up by Nassim Nicholas Taleb's black swan theory, or even Donald Rumsfeld's "unknown unknowns." 

We can know, for example, that bird flu is spreading among cattle and other animals. It might become the next pandemic, or it might not. We can prepare for this known unknown. But somewhere out there, lurking in 2025, is a black swan.

Maybe it's a bad one, like a war or terrorist attack no one sees coming now. Maybe it's a good one, like a vaccine for common cancers or a cheap robot that can fold laundry.

And when I say "a" black swan, obviously I'm simplifying. There's at least one black swan somewhere in 2025. But there could be a whole flock of them, some good, some bad, and some just plain weird. 

This is why I no longer try to predict much of anything. 

Six months ago, the smart money in the B.C. election this year was on the NDP romping to victory over a centre-right split between BC United and the B.C. Conservatives. If you'd bet $1,000 on "NDP wins election" back in April, well, you'd have won your money. But you would have been sweating bullets for a while there.

There's an old parable (or possibly just a joke) about a thief condemned to death by a king. "Your highness, please spare me!" says the thief.

"Why should I?" says the king.

"Because I have a special gift! I can teach horses to talk!"

"Oh really?" says the king. "Okay, take him to the stables. You have a year to teach my horse to talk, or it's the axe for you!"

As he's being led off, the thief's fellow prisoner whispers "Are you crazy? Nobody can do that!"

The thief shrugs. "A lot can happen in a year," he says. "The king could die. I could die. The horse could learn to talk."

There are a few certainties. The days will get longer and then shorter again. Kids will grow up, and adults will remain immature. People will insist that things were better in the old days, without any evidence. The rich will likely get richer. 

But a lot of things are going to happen that we simply can't predict. The only way to move forward is to admit that the future can never be seen clearly. The horse could even learn to talk.