Florida is the third most populous state in the United States, with more than 22 million people as of this year.

It鈥檚 also one of the fastest growing, as both retirees and working-age folks move where they never have to think about shovelling snow. And that doesn鈥檛 even count all the Canadian snowbirds who spend their winters there.

So here鈥檚 a question: will the population of Florida be higher, or lower, in 20 years?

The obvious answer is higher. Every current trend points in that direction.

I鈥檓 not so sure.

Florida is facing a crisis caused by climate change. It鈥檚 not that the state is going to be flooded (yet) or that hurricanes are going to wash its major cities into the ocean (yet).

It鈥檚 that insurers are bailing on the state, and the ones that are left are charging eye-watering premiums to insure homes, cars, and just about anything else.

In 2023, six insurance companies in Florida have become insolvent. Farmers Insurance became the latest large firm to announce it was entirely pulling out of the state 鈥� but it was not the first.

Car insurance, meanwhile, is also higher in Florida than anywhere else, averaging US$2,560 this year 鈥� it makes ICBC look cheap 鈥� and if recent trends continue, drivers could be paying more than $4,800 in 10 years. Coincidentally, Florida has the highest proportion of uninsured drivers of any state.

The reason for these high rates is obvious 鈥� Florida is directly in the path of a major hurricane every couple of years. Hurricanes are getting worse and more frequent as the planet keeps getting hotter. That means payouts for storm-damaged homes and cars are already high, and are only going to get worse.

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Florida grew and grew and grew because it had plentiful cheap, flat land on which to build, and sunshine, and beaches.

But if you can鈥檛 insure your home, or your car, or worse yet, your business, is it worth it?

This crisis will come to a head the next time a major hurricane hits, which will be sooner rather than later.

A significant number of people are going to look at the wreckage of their house, their car, the office or warehouse or mall or restaurant where they worked, and decide to pull up stakes, and move to somewhere cheaper.

Some of those snowbirds will not come back. Others will migrate to somewhere that鈥檚 a little bit easier on the wallet, even if it is a bit chilly in the winter.

We think of climate change and weather catastrophe in terms of physical damage 鈥� homes destroyed by wildfire, or flooding, or tornadoes.

But just because your house, or even your neighbourhood, is spared from the path of the storm, doesn鈥檛 mean it won鈥檛 hit you indirectly.

Through insurance, or taxes, or impacts on the job market, we鈥檙e all going to pay the price of climate change.

Florida is just the canary in the coal mine, letting us know what鈥檚 coming.